Nomination rules and the calculus of mobilization: Theory and evidence from Mexico

Does party organization shape candidates’ electoral mobilization efforts? I develop a novel theoretical account linking candidate selection rules to mobilization. Nomination that require aspiring candidates compete in races, such as primary elections, create incentives for them make considerable investments order win the party’s nomination. Using decision-theoretic model, show how these initial at nomination stage expenditures general election. The main result establishes primaries increase efforts only when election is not expected be competitive; close race expected, mobilize same rates regardless of they were nominated. Analysis an original dataset on and Mexico provides strong support theory.